Government issues an El-Nino alert

Kenyans should brace for heavy rainfall between the months of October, November and December. In September, the ministry of special programmes in conjunction with the meteorological department issued an El Nino alert warning that the enhanced rainfall will cause flooding, landslides and water borne diseases. The Met Department also warned that the El Nino would be similar to the one experienced in 1961. The climate outlook for the months of October to December 2012 “Short Rains” season indicates that much of the country is likely to experience enhanced rainfall. The distribution of the rainfall in time and space is expected to be generally good over most parts of the country including the dry Eastern, Southeastern, Northern and Northeastern Kenya that suffered severe drought in 2011. According to the weatherman, this forecast should be used as guidance in planning and preparedness by decision- makers and the public and in various climate sensitive sectors. (Source: The Kenya Met Department website). The potential scenarios and impact on WV Program activities: World Vision has identified the potential El Nino hotspots, the potential scenarios and their possible impact on program activities. According to Maina King’ori, World Vision Senior Program Officer for Humanitarian and Emergency Affairs, most of World Vision operation areas are likely to experience some of the negative impacts of enhanced rains. These include: Dadaab, Ijara, Moyale, Laisamis, Oldonyiro, Garbatulla and Wajir, in Northeastern Kenya that will experience infrastructure destruction, with especially roads being cut off by floods. These areas are also likely to report incidents of Rift Valley Fever. Wajir, Ijara and Dadaab are also likely to record Cholera and other diarrheal disease These areas are prone to disease outbreak in times of flooding. Along the coastal region, Taveta and Mwatate program areas will experience flooding, especially so in Taveta should torrential rains be experienced in the Tanzanian highlands across the border. Infrastructure destruction, occasioned by flooding is likely in Marafa, Bamba, and Lamu. There is also a likelihood of diarrheal disease outbreaks and Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Bamba and Marafa. In the North rift region, Lokori, Kainuk, Tunyo program areas are likely to experience flooding, landslides, infrastructure destruction and diarrheal disease outbreaks. Most of the programs in Turkana County are also likely to record displacements. In the Central rift region, Marigat and Mogotio are likely to experience flooding and displacement, while Soin and Tinderet program areas will experience possible landslides. Some roads will be inaccessible in Lorroki. Other areas likely to experience flooding and displacements are: Winam, Katito, Pala, Magunga and Narok town (Olenton ADP). As a result the roads will be difficult to access and this would paralyze transportation. The worst-case scenario being, some major roads will be completely cut off by the floodwaters. World Vision response team appeals to the field to be prepared: World Vision Kenya has directed all program areas especially in the marginal agricultural areas involved in supporting farmers with seeds, tools and equipment to ensure that the farmers have these before the onset of the rains so as to take advantage of the rains. In addition to this, programs have been asked to expedite the process of completing water-harvesting structures before the rains commence. Programs have also been advised to ensure that all construction materials are procured immediately and are on the construction site well in advance as it may not be possible to get materials on site once the rains commence. Also, all food (PRRO) and nutrition projects, have been directed to ensure that there are sufficient stocks of food pre-positioned in the warehouses as roads are likely to be cut off in some of the locations identified as El Nino potential hot spots. In addition, the field teams have been directed to trigger the discussion of the El Nino rains in the District Steering Group (DSG) meetings; influence contingency planning by all agencies and the government ahead of any potential flooding or negative impacts from the rains. Currently, World Vision field teams are sensitizing community members on the opportunities and threats presented by the onset of the above normal rains across the country.